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- Title
Construção e aplicação de um índice de vulnerabilidade humana à mudança do clima para o contexto brasileiro: a experiência do estado do Espírito Santo.
- Authors
dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Alves Menezes, Júlia; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Paula Madureira, Ana; de Brito Duval, Isabela; Pedro Garcia, Poliana; Margonari, Carina
- Abstract
Climate change poses a serious threat to the human population, causing impacts in different sectors. Understanding the factors that may increase human's vulnerability to climate change allows to identify critical points and to direct immediate actions to reduce vulnerability. Thus, this study developed and applied an index of vulnerability to climate change for the microregions of the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, encompassing the key elements of vulnerability - Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity. Climatic anomalies of precipitation and temperature were also used for estimate future climate changes. Construction of the indicators was based on the assignment of scores indicating levels of vulnerability for each group of municipalities (clustering); subsequent arithmetic mean and standardization of the values were applied to generate indices from 0 and 1. The Northwestern microregion presented high vulnerability due to its sociodemographic, economic and environmental characteristics. In addition, the entire state may be affected by changes in future climate, mainly by the increase of average temperatures. The Northern region may have a considerable increase in the number of consecutive dry days. These results are expected to contribute to guide actions of adaptation to the climate change and to increase the resilience of the territory from the identification of existing vulnerabilities.
- Publication
Saúde e Sociedade, 2019, Vol 28, Issue 1, p299
- ISSN
0104-1290
- Publication type
Academic Journal
- DOI
10.1590/s0104-12902019180431