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- Title
UN MODELO BI-CRITERIO PARA LA UBICACIÓN DE ALBERGUES, COMO PARTE DE UN PLAN DE EVACUACIÓN EN CASO DE INUNDACIONES.
- Authors
Gaytán Iniestra, Juan; Arroyo López, Pilar Ester; Enríquez Colón, Ruth
- Abstract
One of the Mexican cities recurrently affected by floods is Villahermosa, capital of the state of Tabasco located at the Southeast of Mexico. The frequent floods make necessary to have a prevention strategy to assist the city's inhabitants and guarantee their safety. The objective of this research was to design an evacuation plan for the city's inhabitants in case of a severe flood, this plan needs to specify: 1) the number and location of shelters and distribution centers with a pre-positioned inventory and 2) the assignment of individuals to shelters as well as the selection of evacuation routes. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and specialized software (ArcView and IDRISI) were used to simulate three different inundation scenarios for Villahermosa city: 80 centimeters, 2 and 4 meters of water flood and then identify sites that fulfill safety and capacity standards to be used as shelters or distribution centers; evacuation routes and city areas that may result inundated were also identified under each scenario. This information was used as entries for a integer linear programming (ILP) model with two objectives: minimize the total time required to evacuate all persons from the affected areas and minimize the total cost of furnishing shelters and distribution centers, and using the roads to evacuate the population and to transport supplies to the shelters. Since these two objectives are in conflict, selected points of the efficient frontier were obtained by using the weight method and ε-constraint; each solution represents an evacuation plan that makes optimal use of resources. The mathematical models were solved by using the General Algebraic Modeling System; first the minimal cost solution that satisfies all restrictions was generated, followed by the minimization of total evacuation. The solutions represent options of different costs to accomplish the evacuation of all affected inhabitants; depending on the total evacuation time desired, a particular plan may be chosen. As the height of the water flood increases, more shelters are required and more individuals need to be evacuated, in consequence the optimization models for the 4 meters scenario were more difficult to solve. In particular, the solutions generated under this scenario outperform the evacuation plan implemented by the designed authorities during the 2007 flood - the most severe inundation that affected Villahermosa in the past.
- Publication
Revista Ingeniería Industrial, 2012, Vol 11, Issue 2, p35
- ISSN
0717-9103
- Publication type
Academic Journal