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- Title
Küresel Ekonomik, Politik ve Jeopolitik Belirsizliklerin Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine SVAR Analizi (1992:Q1-2018Q:2).
- Authors
YALÇINKAYA, Ömer
- Abstract
In this study, it is aimed to examine empirically whether the uncertainties stemming from economic, political and geopolitical (EPG) developments in the global economy creates effects on financial and fiscal qualified the basic macroeconomic indicators of Turkey's economy (interest, inflation and unemployment rate, exchange rate, stock prices, money supply, current account balance, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, other investments, physical capital accumulation, economic growth) as predicted in the theoretical level. In the study for this purpose, the effects of global EPG uncertainties on financial and fiscal qualified the macroeconomic indicators of Turkey's economy are investigated econometrically by the time series analysis methodology and scope of SVAR model for the period 1992:Q1-2018Q:2. As a result of this study, it was determined that uncertainties stemming from global EPG developments have had significantly negative impacts on the financial and macroeconomic indicators of the Turkish economy in line with expectations in the short and/or long term. However, the results indicate that the current level of uncertainties stemming from global EPJ developments on the financial and fiscal qualified macroeconomic indicators of the Turkey's economy with its position in the global economic plane is an important element of external instability.
- Publication
Journal of Yaşar University / Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 2019, Vol 14, Issue 53, p56
- ISSN
1305-970X
- Publication type
Academic Journal