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- Title
EFFICACY OF PROTECTED AREAS IN CONSERVING THE PRESENT AND FUTURE OF THE CORDIA AFRICANA (LAM.) IN DRY LANDS OF ETHIOPIA.
- Authors
MAKHIYA, Hlongwani; BIRHANE, Emiru; TEWOLDE-BERHAN, Sarah; ABRHA, Haftu
- Abstract
Climate change will cause species range shift. However, conservation implications of species range shift are limited. Therefore, this study aimed at assessing the efficacy of Protected Areas (PAs) in the conservation of Cordia Africana (Lam.) species under present and future climatic conditions in Tigray region, northern Ethiopia. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, a species predictive modelling software was used to model both the present and future distributions of Cordia Africana species within the Protected Areas of Tigray region. An ensemble of three General Circulation Models (‘CCSM4’, ‘HadGEM2-ES’ and ‘MIROC5’) along with two Representative Concentration Pathways; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over two time periods (2050 and 2070) were used for modelling the future species distribution. Results indicate that suitable habitats for Cordia Africana species under current climatic conditions covers only 17% of the total area in PAs. However, the total area of suitable habitats for Cordia Africana within the PAs will increase up to 32% under future climate scenarios. The results suggest that PAs show low efficacy to protect Cordia Africana species. Therefore, conservation planning should integrate in situ and forest management strategies while taking into consideration climate change scenarios.
- Publication
International Journal of Conservation Science, 2021, Vol 12, Issue 2, p559
- ISSN
2067-533X
- Publication type
Academic Journal