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- Title
Simple COVID-19 Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Model with Social Distancing Levels Across Time: A West Texas Example.
- Authors
Penuliar, Mike; Clark, Candice; Phillips, Scott; Curti, Debbie; Hudson, Cathy; Philips, Billy
- Abstract
In the era of the novel coronavirus disease of 2019, COVID- 19, there are many who have attempted to model various aspects of how the pandemic would play out, based on when hospitals and health care providers would be overwhelmed. Others have attempted to model the relative effectiveness of various public health attempts to contain it such as social distancing, hand washing, and masking. Still others have made models of the peaks and valleys of reopening the economy with spikes of new infection. A robust approach to each of these applications is the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model that is presented in this manuscript: a simple, practical, and useful model albeit as imperfect as any such attempt at predicting an uncertain and unknown future. Yet, the events can be modeled, predicted, and done within the noise of the situations that affect their validity.
- Publication
Texas Public Health Journal, 2020, Vol 72, Issue 4, p15
- ISSN
2574-5859
- Publication type
Academic Journal